ITGC Thwaites Glacier

Processes, drivers, Prediction: modeling the History and Evolution of Thwaites (PROPHET)

PROPHET is a modelling project intended to reduce uncertainty in near-future projections of the evolution of Thwaites Glacier. This will be achieved by improving the representation of several key processes that are not currently characterised well in large scale ice-flow models, and by determining the relative importance of different external drivers of change. Using coupled ice-ocean models, predictions will be made of the future ice loss from Thwaites Glacier and its contribution to sea level rise.

Processes such as calving, ice damage and basal melt are not well represented in current models. Improving ice-flow models is essential for accurately forecasting future ice loss from Thwaites Glacier.

The PROPHET team will use three different ice-flow models—ISSM, Úa and STREAMICE—to better characterize these key processes. Each ice-flow model will be coupled with the ocean model MITgcm for simulations linking Thwaites Glacier to the Amundsen Sea. The use of three separate models will encapsulate a wider range of uncertainty and help to identify any areas where a particular model may need more improvement. Once the processes are better understood, the improved models will be validated by comparing observational data collected from 1992 onwards to simulated outputs covering the same time range.

The final step will be to investigate future change in Thwaites Glacier and the surrounding area on 100- to 500-year timescales, using the newly improved models with their better representation of important physical processes. The models will be forced by different ocean-warming scenarios, with multiple simulations to reflect the range of uncertainty in model parameterisation. This will produce future ice-loss and sea-level projections with reduced uncertainty compared to those currently available.

Northumbria University's PROPHET page

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